Tuesday
It is four years to the day since Mr Bojo the Clown resigned
but didn't actually resign as Prime Monster. Does anyone remember him?
In a speech that many thought was so self-serving it would set
all-time records, he told the assembled press that he would squat in Downing
Street long enough to outlast his predecessor, Mrs Maybe, and – as a fake
scholar of the Classics, taking his cue from the not-at-all-made-up diaries of
Emperor Claudius as recounted to Robert Graves – long enough to install a
successor who would be even worse.
Don't know what made me think of that.
Anyway, some questions for Mr Froggface who has today, in a speech
that many think was so self-serving it will set all-time records, resigned so
that he can spend more time standing in a by-election.
- Does he think winning a by-election in a RefUK friendly seat makes you Prime Monster just 'cos Mr Crash'n Burnham did?
- Cos that's not how the FORCE works meme!
- Couldn't he get anyone else in his party to stand down for him the way Mr Crash'n Burnham did?
- Does he think not-at-all-ambitious former Conservatory hypocrite Mr Robot Generic has his back in this?
- Willy Wonka "No! Don't! Come back!" meme!
- Since it's going to be a colossal waste of money, will he pony up the cash to pay for this farce?
- Does he think that forcing an unnecessary by-election now makes the inquiries into where and who he got millions of squids from goes away?
- Cos that's not how the FORCE works meme!
- If he gets re-elected and the inquiries all re-start (which they do, thems the rules) and he gets found out, won't there have to be a recall by-election all over again? (clue: yes)
- And, if he loses, does he have to give the £5million quid bung back?
Suppose that he stands and wins, which you have to expect is
the most likely outcome – Clacton is the most RefUK friendly seat in the
Country and he got 46% of the vote last time.
He will CERTAINLY try to claim that a vote of maybe less
than half of a constituency of 75,000 retired people and a dachshund named
Colin* will count as a MANDATE from HEAVEN that clears him of all sins and
should usher him into government if only the ELITES didn't keep ignoring the
will of the PEOPLE. And by PEOPLE he means billionaires and Putin and anyone
else who keeps sending him CRYPTO.
(*Colin will NOT vote RefUK.)
It's entirely possible that the other Parties might also treat
this vanity project the same way they treated the Haltemprice and Howden
by-election, when that other vain right-wing gasbag Mr Davis David did a
flounce and re-stand by-election, and just not take part.
The risk there is that Froggage comes out of it saying:
"they're too frit to stand against me" and/or "I got 80% of the
vote!" on a turnout of 8.
On the other fluffy foot, the vote could be split between a
range of FRINGE parties – RefUK, ReSTUCK, ReSUK and the Tories – leading to
Count Binface winning with 26% of the vote.
You might say – and you can probably bet that the fash-friendly
press WILL say – that this is a TEST for Mr Burnham. After all, he is the shiny
new leader who is supposed to be able to take on RefUK on their own territory
and win.
And you know, it would be HILARIOUS if he COULD win, and
effectively see of RefUK in just two by-elections.
But it's not really a FAIR test because Hard Labour were
only THIRD in Clacton at 2024 – good candidate, no campaign – and got just 16%
of the vote. Still, they were substantially ahead of Lib Dem and Green on 4%
each. So you might imagine that a strong campaign could hoover up those "progressive
votes", and could see Labour get to – maybe – 30%.
But then of course the CONSERVATORIES came SECOND last time
around, with 28% of the vote. So this could be as much of a test of their leader
Ms Kemi Bad Enough. Sadly, all her current positions are trying to out-wing-nut
the RefUKers – she's just not positioned herself to reassure MODERATE Conservatory
voters, let alone win over any of the Labour, Liberal or Greens. And she's
certainly not selling diet-fash to people who already voted Froggy once.
I think her vote will go DOWN. But maybe not a lot. If they
were going to vote Frog, they would have done last time (thought don't underestimate
the Conservatory preference for voting for winners). There's the outside chance
of some switching to Labour to get RefUK out (shame it's not Liberal Democrats
in second, with the ability to reach out to both Conservatory AND Labour
voters). But let's ASSUME that the Conservatory votes stays about the same.
So the most likely outcome is a 40-30-30 split
But what happens if Mr Frog ACTUALLY loses?
It could happen. Voters in Clacton might be struck by the realisation
that a man who spent more time advertising GOLD BULLION than actually visiting
the people who elected him does NOT have their interests at heart. Or whatever
he has for a heart. Probably his wallet. Anyway.
Don’t worry about Mr Frog. He will, sadly, always be okay. For
him, this politics has always been a GRIFT – a nice easy seat in the European
Parliament with a cosy pension. He might find campaigning FUN, but he's never been
one to do HARD WORK. He wouldn't have stood for Parliament except he was offered
that £5million. And he wasn't ever going to say no to that.
Sadly Spivvy Nige will be just DANDY.
But Great Britain still has a PROBLEM.
That's because there's a LOT of ANGRY people who feel let
down, indeed BETRAYED by politics in general. Mainly because there's been an ongoing
rolling clusterfuck of a cost of living crisis ever since the Global Crash of
2008!
(And austerity made it worse, and Brexit made it even worse,
and Covid made it worse still, and the mini-budget of Lettuce Liz certainly
didn't help…)
They've seen a whole CLOWN PARADE of Prime Monsters come and
go, each promising to make it better, get Brexit done, level things up, "change"…
and none of it has made a difference.
There's a lot of people who no longer think politics CAN
make things better.
They don't want to vote for people who say they'll make it
better. Because they don't believe them. What they do want is REVENGE. And they
want to vote for people who will make things worse for SOMEONE ELSE.
The GOOD news is that Mr Frog is an almost unique
charismatic talent. Without his voice to pull them together the right tend to
go to pieces. See every other Party he's led and then quit.
But those angry people are NOT going away.
The real task for anyone who thinks things could be BETTER
is to PROVE to people that they CAN be better.
And THAT is not a vanity project.
[Daddy Richard is writing more stories at aNARCHY rULES - go check it out]
