Day 9319: Mr Froggy's Vanity Election

 Tuesday

 

It is four years to the day since Mr Bojo the Clown resigned but didn't actually resign as Prime Monster. Does anyone remember him?

In a speech that many thought was so self-serving it would set all-time records, he told the assembled press that he would squat in Downing Street long enough to outlast his predecessor, Mrs Maybe, and – as a fake scholar of the Classics, taking his cue from the not-at-all-made-up diaries of Emperor Claudius as recounted to Robert Graves – long enough to install a successor who would be even worse.

Don't know what made me think of that.

Anyway, some questions for Mr Froggface who has today, in a speech that many think was so self-serving it will set all-time records, resigned so that he can spend more time standing in a by-election.

1. Does he think winning a by-election in a RefUK friendly seat makes you Prime Monster just 'cos Mr Crash'n Burnham did?
2. Cos that's not how the FORCE works meme!
3. Couldn't he get anyone else in his party to stand down for him the way Mr Crash'n Burnham did?
4. Does he think not-at-all-ambitious former Conservatory hypocrite Mr Robot Generic has his back in this?
5. Willy Wonka "No! Don't! Come back!" meme!
6. Since it's going to be a colossal waste of money, will he pony up the cash to pay for this farce?
7. Does he think that forcing an unnecessary by-election now makes the inquiries into where and who he got millions of squids from goes away?
8. Cos that's not how the FORCE works meme!
9. If he gets re-elected and the inquiries all re-start (which they do, thems the rules) and he gets found out, won't there have to be a recall by-election all over again? (clue: yes)
10. And, if he loses, does he have to give the £5million quid bung back?

Suppose that he stands and wins, which you have to expect is the most likely outcome – Clacton is the most RefUK friendly seat in the Country and he got 46% of the vote last time.

He will CERTAINLY try to claim that a vote of maybe less than half of a constituency of 75,000 retired people and a dachshund named Colin* will count as a MANDATE from HEAVEN that clears him of all sins and should usher him into government if only the ELITES didn't keep ignoring the will of the PEOPLE. And by PEOPLE he means billionaires and Putin and anyone else who keeps sending him CRYPTO.

(*Colin will NOT vote RefUK.)

It's entirely possible that the other Parties might also treat this vanity project the same way they treated the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, when that other vain right-wing gasbag Mr Davis David did a flounce and re-stand by-election, and just not take part.

The risk there is that Froggage comes out of it saying: "they're too frit to stand against me" and/or "I got 80% of the vote!" on a turnout of 8.

On the other fluffy foot, the vote could be split between a range of FRINGE parties – RefUK, ReSTUCK, ReSUK and the Tories – leading to Count Binface winning with 26% of the vote.

 

You might say – and you can probably bet that the fash-friendly press WILL say – that this is a TEST for Mr Burnham. After all, he is the shiny new leader who is supposed to be able to take on RefUK on their own territory and win.

And you know, it would be HILARIOUS if he COULD win, and effectively see of RefUK in just two by-elections.

But it's not really a FAIR test because Hard Labour were only THIRD in Clacton at 2024 – good candidate, no campaign – and got just 16% of the vote. Still, they were substantially ahead of Lib Dem and Green on 4% each. So you might imagine that a strong campaign could hoover up those "progressive votes", and could see Labour get to – maybe – 30%.

But then of course the CONSERVATORIES came SECOND last time around, with 28% of the vote. So this could be as much of a test of their leader Ms Kemi Bad Enough. Sadly, all her current positions are trying to out-wing-nut the RefUKers – she's just not positioned herself to reassure MODERATE Conservatory voters, let alone win over any of the Labour, Liberal or Greens. And she's certainly not selling diet-fash to people who already voted Froggy once.

I think her vote will go DOWN. But maybe not a lot. If they were going to vote Frog, they would have done last time (thought don't underestimate the Conservatory preference for voting for winners). There's the outside chance of some switching to Labour to get RefUK out (shame it's not Liberal Democrats in second, with the ability to reach out to both Conservatory AND Labour voters). But let's ASSUME that the Conservatory votes stays about the same.

So the most likely outcome is a 40-30-30 split

 

But what happens if Mr Frog ACTUALLY loses?

It could happen. Voters in Clacton might be struck by the realisation that a man who spent more time advertising GOLD BULLION than actually visiting the people who elected him does NOT have their interests at heart. Or whatever he has for a heart. Probably his wallet. Anyway.

Don’t worry about Mr Frog. He will, sadly, always be okay. For him, this politics has always been a GRIFT – a nice easy seat in the European Parliament with a cosy pension. He might find campaigning FUN, but he's never been one to do HARD WORK. He wouldn't have stood for Parliament except he was offered that £5million. And he wasn't ever going to say no to that.

Sadly Spivvy Nige will be just DANDY.

 

But Great Britain still has a PROBLEM.

That's because there's a LOT of ANGRY people who feel let down, indeed BETRAYED by politics in general. Mainly because there's been an ongoing rolling clusterfuck of a cost of living crisis ever since the Global Crash of 2008!

(And austerity made it worse, and Brexit made it even worse, and Covid made it worse still, and the mini-budget of Lettuce Liz certainly didn't help…)

They've seen a whole CLOWN PARADE of Prime Monsters come and go, each promising to make it better, get Brexit done, level things up, "change"… and none of it has made a difference.

There's a lot of people who no longer think politics CAN make things better.

They don't want to vote for people who say they'll make it better. Because they don't believe them. What they do want is REVENGE. And they want to vote for people who will make things worse for SOMEONE ELSE.

The GOOD news is that Mr Frog is an almost unique charismatic talent. Without his voice to pull them together the right tend to go to pieces. See every other Party he's led and then quit.

But those angry people are NOT going away.

The real task for anyone who thinks things could be BETTER is to PROVE to people that they CAN be better.

And THAT is not a vanity project.

[Daddy Richard is writing more stories at aNARCHY rULES - go check it out]

Day 9304: So Farewell Then, Kier Starmer

 Monday

 

Time for some more fluffiness. Did you miss me?

 

Anyway, Mr Sir Kier Starmer has resigned.

Great Britain will have another new Prime Monster.

We are seeing a lot of people saying: "oh no, not another one," and talk of how many Prime Monsters we have had in the last decade, and is Britain UNGOVERNABLE.

But it is actually a GOOD THING that a boss who is not performing can be asked to step down by people lower down the organisation. Something a LOT of British businesses might want to think about.

 

So, Mr Andy "Crash and" Burnham – now that he has the backing of Mr Wesley "Coronation" Streeting – will be Prime Monster.

So I think we should at least be war gaming the possibility of A GENERAL ELECTION IN OCTOBER.

 

Why?

Because right now, Mr Nigel Frogage, owner of one of the extreme "R" parties (Reset? Reverse? Reflux?) is in trouble at the moment, and still trying to avoid questions about a dodgy £5 million quid bung. And he's just lost three significant by-elections in a row, all showing that the voters will unite behind whoever is NOT standing for Mr Frog.

So, if there’s even the slightest economic recovery from the Straits of Hormuz being reopened, plus a "honeymoon bounce”, Burnham has got to AT LEAST consider that going now could get five more years and mandate for (among other things electoral reform) when going at the end of May 2029 could lead to DISASTER.

And remember, Mr Burnham was part of Mr Gordon Frown’s Cabinet, and saw first-hand a honeymoon evaporate after Mr Frown decided not to go for his own mandate.

 

And what about Mr Sir Kier?

His BIGGEST mistake was thinking that he WON the election in 2024, rather than the Tories LOSING it by being catastrophically terribly awful.

(Something many decent Liberal Democrats in all those seats WE won might want to be thinking about too.)

His NEXT BIGGEST mistake was to CARRY ON the Tory policy of being catastrophically terribly awful.

People voted him in for CHANGE and he cave them NO CHANGE.

Cuts to benefits, less spending on services – he did not even change the Tory record!

Worst of all, though, as a human rights lawyer he’s overseen the WORST ATTACK on our human rights in my fluffy lifetime, with particularly trans people – who can't even go to the loo any more! – but also immigrant communities much worse off, pandering to the absolute worst of fascist rhetoric, and now cutting off the socials for under sixteens. Or even under eighteens, in some versions. Let them all stare at the wall.

He feels betrayed?

Try being QUEER or BROWN or YOUNG, Sir Kier.

 

And people seem to forget that he should have resigned in disgrace over the scandal of appointing the fractally resigning Mr Peter Mandelbrot as Ambassador to President Blimp.

But because of Labour SHENANIGANS (they wanted him to stay on to take the blame for the inevitable disastrous local election results) he somehow just didn’t.

(He threw his chief of staff, Mr Morgan McSweeny-Todd under the bus instead.)

And people seem to forget that he should have resigned in disgrace over the inevitably disastrous local election results.

But because of Labour SHENANIGANS (Mr Burnhams wasn't in Parliament yet, and Mr Coronation Streeting wasn't getting the support and Ms Angela Crayola was still in trouble with the tax man) he somehow just didn’t.

(He brought back his chief of staff, Mr Morgan McSweeny-Todd instead.)

 

So, HONESTLY, it does feel a bit PAST TIME for him to be done.

 

It's actually pretty TYPICAL – if you take the long view – that Great Britain has LOT of short-lived Prime Monsters with occasional REALLY LONG serving ones.

The SURPRISING thing really is that we had TWO (Mrs Lady Thatcher and Lord Tonty Blairimort) who lasted three terms. And both of them went quite round the twist in the end.

Mr Major minor and Mr David Balloon managed a term and a bit, which seemed like stability, and then we've had a load of others who can basically be measured in LETTUCES.

And there's a LOT MORE to say about HOW we elect our Prime Monsters or Members of Parliament. Because we choose people who are good at GETTING ELECTED, not people who are good at RUNNING THE COUNTRY. And these are very NOT THE SAME.

 

But anyway, farewell then Mr Sir Kier.

And welcome to our new lettuce overlord.

Day 6899: Now that the Turkeys have Voted for Christmas…

Thursday:

I don’t suppose anyone’s noticed, but there’s a General Election on.

Manifest

So let’s put it on record that this is a VERY STUPID PLAN.

A General Election is VERY HIGH RISK.

If we get a Lib Dem government, we CAN stop Brexit. But that’s a REALLY big “if”.

If Johnson wins a majority, he can have ANY BREXIT HE LIKES. Maybe his “deal”; maybe the self-styled Spartans of the ERG will blackmail him into No Deal. “Spartans” being an anagram of “AN SS PRAT”.

We should have taken every extra day we could get to look at Johnson's "deal", unpick it, show it for what it is. We should have hung him out to dry in a Parliament that would not let him legislate, show him up as weak, powerless and posturing.

Yet faced with 19 Labour MPs voting for the clown car’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill AND the sight of Jeremy Corbyn slipping into Number 10 for talks with the Government on how a timetable for debating the bill might be agreed… a last roll of dice seemed like the better option.

Remember, every day that we are still in the European Union is another day of winning, is another day closer to proving Brexit is impossible, and ending this nightmare.

So where do we stand:

With the odious Nigel Farrago having finally been swallowed by his own betrayal narrative – accepting a one-sided deal with the Tories to stand down half his company (they’re not a Party) in exchange for bugger all – the Brexit Party (not a Party) are now a spent force, excepting that their subversion of the Tories is now complete.

So in England, these are the THREE Parties and their strategies:
(Wales and Scotland have nationalist parties as well, who have their own agenda, particularly Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Nasty Party, who are out for gaming ANY result to achieve a new independence referendum.)

CONSERVATORIES

The Tory strategy is to say only they can finish the mess they’ve made by getting us into the Brexit disaster. Yes, their pitch is they can make a COMPLETE MESS. And the evidence is that they CAN!

It’s a horribly short-termist tactic – within weeks of the election it will be clear that “get it done” means “you’ve been had”, as the country progresses to merely the next round of endless argument and fear of another no deal – but the cynical wiring into the nation’s exhaustion with the debate and division that THEY THEMSELVES caused appear to be working.

In a further divisive calculation, they’ve also decided that since most of the population believe politicians lie all the time, they might as well just lie. So thank you to all right-on comedians and commentators who’ve been fostering this for years and years by lazily telling us so over and over and sneering ‘They’re all the same’ (because that’s easier than actually explaining that most politicians try to tell the truth as they see it); congratulations, you’ve empowered a fascist takeover.

So, so far, what we’ve heard from the Tories has all been about costs of Labour’s manifesto (made up); consequences of a coalition between Labour and SNP (made up); and next to nothing about their own plans.

And it’s working.

With a few honourable exceptions, the media is failing us catastrophically by merely parroting the Tory line, rather than challenging the government who are SUPPOSED TO BE IN POWER over what they are actually doing.

HARD LABOUR

The Labour party strategy is the same as it always is: claim that the NHS is being privatised.

Oh yes, they’ve got a whole Scandi-style socialism smorgasbord of policies: nationalise everything so they can give away everything from free broadband to free tuition fees, and the price tag hardly matters because (a) the Tories are promising to spend money like it’s going out of fashion too (didn’t they used to want to “save the pound”?) so costings are largely fictional, but (b) they aren’t going to win anyway!

Labour’s big weakness (after their Leader) is their incoherence on Brexit.

We know that Labour would much rather Brexit was “done”… well not “done” as such (see above), but we all know too that Johnson and Jeremy can agree that passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill means “done” because it suits their interests… And Labour want it “done” on a Tory watch, so that the Tories are to BLAME, and so that they can go back to campaigning in their comfort zone of “Vote For Us Or The Puppy Gets It” (where as usual “the puppy” means the NHS).

What Labour are doing very well is attacking the Liberal Democrats.

IF Labour’s real aim is to beat the Conservatories, then this is COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE. Most of the seats where Lib Dems are challenging, across the South-West, the south of Manchester and of course London, are seats that we can win (and have won!) but Labour cannot. To flip the Labour line, taking votes from the Lib Dems really does let the Tories in.

And yet as in 2017 and 2015, Labour are working hard to convince those voters that to choose Liberal is to let in the Tories, even though the reverse is true.

So why are Labour doing this. Firstly because it’s easier. Secondly, because it provokes US to attack them BACK, and that’s a look that works better for them then for us: “look! how shocking! the Lib Dems are attacking Labour! they must be Yellow Tories!” they do say. But thirdly because Labour actually PREFER a Tory government (with them in Opposition) which they can rail against in comfortable impotence. What truly terrifies them is a Liberal Democrat government that might actually change things for the better, suddenly revealing that the entire Labour movement has done NOTHING for decades.

And it’s working.

The “vote for us or you’re helping the Tories” message is playing on fear and shoring up the rather tattered remains of the alliance that voted for Corbyn in 2017, back before Labour decided that it could put up with antisemitism more than being anti-Brexit.

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

Lib Dem Fight Back

The Liberal Democrat plan in this Election – and any General Election that wasn’t 2015 – is to GET NOTICED. We have to offer HOPE and CHANGE. Change from the stale duopoly that just swaps one authoritarian power for another; hope that we can break out of the past to build a better future.

That’s not going well.

The Tory and Labour leaders have collaborated with ITV and BBC to lock Jo Swinson out of the debate to be Prime Minister. The “excuse” which they won’t say too loud is that “only Johnson or Corbyn can be Prime Minister”. They won’t say that too loud in case someone realises that that means there’s something WRONG with the election.

The Labservative framing of the Election is pushing people into the old choice of “who do you fear more?” Vote Labour to stop the Tories getting in; Vote Tory to keep Corbyn out. Don’t vote Lib Dem or you’ll let the others in!

We should be doing so much better than this.

When we campaigned in the Euro Elections on our VALUES, we WON.

It’s been a JOY to support Siobhan Benita’s campaign to be Mayor of London, because she’s been talking to people about our VALUES – and making speeches saying: “immigration is good” and “end the war on drugs”. Liberal solutions to crime, housing, clean air that liberal London needs.

And I have been BEGGING to stand for Parliament on a Liberal Values ticket, to say we can be radical and different. We NEED Liberal Voices to be there, so that the case for Liberalism is made. LOUDLY and OFTEN.

Instead we’ve positioned ourselves as safe and sensible. The moderate centrists rather than the extremist wingnuts of right and left. There are GOOD things in our manifesto. But also too much “don’t scare the horses”.

Well Liberal Democrats SHOULD scare the horses.

If the plan is to get noticed, then RADICAL GETS NOTICED. Soggy centrist mush does not.

Look at the alternatives:

Corbyn cannot make his mind up (or cannot ADMIT to making his mind up) on the biggest issue since the end of World War Part II. And cannot bring himself to clean house even in the face of overwhelming evidence of antisemitism riddling his Party.

But somehow WE’RE the bad guys for not standing down for any pro-Europe Labour MPs who – no matter how pro-Europe – will still trot happily behind putting an antisemitic Lexiter into Downing Street.

Johnson, by his own admission, should be looking out ditches to go lie in. His hope to bounce parliament and country into his “deal” without scrutiny has failed.

But the message that he’s a failure has been allowed to slip away, by letting him have the pre-Christmas election he was gagging for, making him look again like the master of the agenda, rather than the servant of chaos.

Why are we not cutting through against two appalling LOSERS?

Because we are campaigning in GREY when we should be campaigning in GOLD.

SO HOW DO WE GET TO LIB DEMS WINNING (from) HERE

We are letting the Tories get away with setting the agenda, THEIR agenda, defining Brexit as nearly done, rather than about to get a whole lot worse, and all the empty promises they can make from a dividend they will never deliver. We are letting Labour’s attacks pull us onto THEIR territory (you’re with us or you’re Tories). We’re NOT playing to our RADICAL strengths.

So we need to be LEADING THE FIGHT against the Tories more.

And we need to start LOVE BOMBING the Labour lot more.

In her leadership campaign, and in her victory speech, Jo talked about building a LIBERAL MOVEMENT, drawing on people from all traditions, Liberal, Green, Tory AND Labour.

We’ve gone all in to win over Tory remain voters – but at the risk of alienating the social democratic voters who we need too.

Labour voters think Labour are the GOODIES (they’re wrong, but you can’t tell ‘em that – it’s an emotional thing). To win them over, we need to be showing we are GOOD too (and BETTER!).

They GET the problem with Corbyn. Many of them SHARE it.

But seeming to attack Jeremy more than Johnson risks that. Yes, we say “no deals with Johnson or Corbyn”, but they HEAR “no deal with mwah mwah mwah Corbyn”. Well actually they HEAR “we hate Magic Grandpa!”

We have clear lines of attack on Labour: antisemitism, irresponsible spending, arrogant, out-of-touch leader and above all the dithering indecision over Brexit because Jeremy decided the EU was a bad thing when Tony Benn told him so in 1975 and he hasn’t changed his mind about a single thing since.

But beyond “Stop Brexit” what are our clear attack lines on the Tories? We have a route map to Zero Carbon Britain; they would rather back fracking. We would build a better economy based on a new green deal; they scrapped it. We would tackle the root causes of crime; they just want to lock more people up. Why aren’t we saying these things more. And loudly.

Sure, we should say Labour are WRONG: we think they have the wrong answers or no answers.

And with Labour attacking us, we are RIGHT to point out their hypocrisy.

They say austerity is a failed Tory ideology. Our plans to invest in education and health are BETTER than Labour’s.
They say there is a climate crisis. Our plans to achieve Zero Carbon Britain are BETTER than Labour’s.
They say crime is a blight on lives. Our plans to tackle knife crime, end the war on drugs, and work for and with young people are BETTER than Labour’s.

But we still need to be beating the Tories over the head with their Brexitopocalypse MORE.

Tories CHOSE the austerity, and kept it going way past the point it might have been working.

Tories abandoned all the GOOD GREEN investments that Lib Dems began in the Coalition, throwing green businesses under the bus.

Tories cut the police and knife crime got worse under Boris Johnson as Mayor of London. He HID from the riots and cannot face a crisis.

And Brexit makes austerity worse, makes it harder to tackle the climate crisis working alone not with Europe, has triggered an eruption of hate attacks that have pushed fear of crime way up.

With all of the defections – and in spite of the wonderful Luciana Berger and fantastic Chuka Umunna being ex-Labour (but Blairites so – to the Corbyn Cult – “Tories” anyway) – making us look more like a Tory Lifeboat for the soft liberal wing of the Conservatories, or worse the Continuity Cameron/Clegg Party, we need to be DISTINCTIVELY LIBERAL. Not “I’m Tory Plan B”.

The Tories have RUINED this Country. Liberalism WOULD DO BETTER.
Labour have LET the Tories RUIN this Country. Liberalism WOULD DO BETTER.

I love Jo. And I think she IS distinctive. Her interview on ITV was positive and upbeat, especially after the slapstick debacle of Johnson and Jeremy going at each other, but not listening to anyone for an hour. But we need more.

If we are going to Stop Brexit and Build a Better Future… we are going to need to Build a Better Liberal Democrats.

Day 6742: Constitutional Outrage

Monday:


No one should expect to just GET to be Prime Monster!

Liberal Democrats should call for a Vote of Confidence in Parliament before ANYONE can be appointed Prime Minister, and we should demand that the Fixed Term Parliament Act be updated to make this explicit in law.

Boris Johnson looks very likely to win the contest to become leader of the Conservatory Party, already framed as “the race to be Britain’s Next PM”. And, given that he keeps dodging any questions, he could win with remarkably little scrutiny from either his fellow MPs or the public.

That’s an OUTRAGE!

AND there’s the little question of whether he can “command the confidence of the House of Commons” as the saying goes.

The rules governing how you get to become Prime Monster are written down in the Cabinet Manual, last updated at the start of the Coalition, by GOD (that is THE god, Mr Sir Gus O’Donnell, not the deity).

That’s where it says, in big letters at the start of Chapter 2:

“A government holds office by virtue of its ability to command the confidence of the House of Commons, chosen by the electorate in a general election.”

It would be shockingly unconstitutional – but I think also HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE – for Bojo to park his clowncar in Downing Street, installed as PM on the say-so of Theresa Maybe Not with NO opportunity for Parliament to test that he CAN command a majority.

Chapter 2 of the Manual gives us all the details of how a government is made.

(First a mummy government and a daddy government who love each other very much… er, no.)

So what happens when the Prime Monster changes?

The Prime Monster is the Prime Monster until they choose to resign (s2.08).

The Prime Monster MUST resign IF they lose a General Election and someone else has an overall majority (s2.11).

The Prime Monster MUST resign (because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act) IF they lose a Vote of No Confidence and are unable to pass a Vote of Confidence within 14 days (or if someone else IS) (s.2.19).

IF the administration has an overall majority, then the Party or Parties in government get to choose the new Prime Monster (s.2.18).

But what about when there ISN’T an overall majority? Remembering that the Conservatories do NOT have a majority and the Conservatories and DUP are NOT a coalition.

2.20 Where a range of different administrations could be formed, discussions may take place between political parties on who should form the next government. In these circumstances the processes and considerations described in paragraphs 2.12–2.17 would apply.

s2.12 to s2.20 are the “what to do after an election results in a hung parliament” bit.

Firstly, the incumbent government (TMPM) is entitled to wait until Parliament has met to see if it can command a majority (but is expected to resign if it’s clear that it won’t) (s.2.12)

Eventually, the resigning Prime Monster has to go to Mrs the Queen and tell her who the next Prime Monster will be. (s2.13)

[s.2.14 just says the Civil Service can help. S.2.15 says that’s what they did in 2010]

S2.16 is IMPORTANT because it says that the government can ONLY operate on RESTRICTED POWERS for as long as there is doubt over whether it can command a majority.

Finally s2.17 says what kinds of government can be formed: a minority government, winging it from vote to vote, like Hard Labour in the Winter of Discontent; a confidence and supply agreement, like we have now; a formal coalition.

But EVEN acting together, the Conservatories and the DUP can only call on 322 votes (313 Conservatories less 1 deputy speaker plus 10 DUPes); on the other side there are at most 317 votes (with Mr Speaker, 2 Labour deputy speakers and 7 Sinn Fein MPs not voting). That is a “working majority” of 5. Pretty flimsy, and why TMPM kept losing.
Worse, if the Conservatories were to lose 1 by-election to, say, the Liberal Democrats, that would be a majority of just 3. And if just 2 Conservatories were to vote against their own government, it would fall.

Reader, two Conservatories HAVE said they would vote against their own government to stop Boris Johnson and prevent no deal.

I think it’s pretty clear that things ARE in doubt whether ANY new Conservatory Prime Monster, and certainly Mr Johnson, could do the commanding of a majority.

But who is going to tell Mrs the Queen? Let’s ask the Manual…

2.09 “In modern times the convention has been that the Sovereign should not be drawn into party politics, and if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons.”
And that’s the big big problem because you and I both know that this government is going to say “there isn’t any doubt”.

This government or probably ANY government, but this one already has a track record of never doing anything by the rules unless someone loads up the Supreme Court and points it at their heads.

Ask Ms Gina Miller. Ask Mr Sir Kier Stammerer. Ask Mr Sir Oily Letwin.

This government tried to cut Parliament out of the Article 50 Process. This government had to be forced with “humble addresses” to deliver the reports that Davis David had promised them. This government tried to let us leave the EU by default until the backbenches seized control of the timetable.

On EVERY occasion, this government has taken “TAKE BACK CONTROL” to mean “SEIZE POWER FOR US!”

This government more than any other has shown repeatedly that you cannot trust it to let Parliament – the representatives of the people – have their proper say.

So what makes you think they will stick to a convention that says “if there is doubt” they have to talk to Parliament?

The Manual continues…

“As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place.”

…but the current Prime Monster in Name Only, Theresa Maybe Not, is NOT a person who is as good as their word. Far from it, she promised many times that she would not hold a snap election… then held a snap election. She promised many times that we would leave the EU on March 29th … and then didn’t leave the EU on March the 29th.

More to the point, the story goes that when she lost the Conservatory majority in 2017, she allegedly lied to Mrs the Queen saying straight-up that she had the support of the DUP when in fact the billion-pound deal was only secured a week later. The Palace, it is said, were furious.

But again there’s your problem, right there. No action has been taken.

In order not to be SEEN to be political, the Palace lets fibbing in the dark go unpunished. There’s no one to bring them into the light of day.

Take also the case of the Sun’s “Queen Backs Brexit” headline, which was more than a little calculated to turn a few votes in the Referendum. Their source was a Cabinet Minister, widely believed to be Michael Gove, then leader of the Leave campaign. Surely a clear case of drawing the Crown in to politics.

If the convention had ANY teeth, the Referendum would have been voided there and then. The Sun would have been fined the full cost of mounting the process. Michael Gove, if indeed it was he, would have been summarily dismissed as an MP and never allowed to stand again. None of this happened.

It is transparently safe for the wicked to flout convention.

To paraphrase Sir Desmond Glazebrook, of Yes Minister, the whole system relies on good chaps behaving as good chaps, and a good chap can never accuse another good chap of not being a good chap because that’s not the behaviour of a good chap, and well, that’s where it all falls over.


I think this government, and with a new PM in charge the next government, will try to carry on as though it has 100% of the power, even though it has none of the right.

Remember those RESTRICTIONS on what government can do when the ability to command a majority is in doubt?

Those restrictions start with:

2.27 While the government retains its responsibility to govern and ministers remain in charge of their departments, governments are expected by convention to observe discretion in initiating any new action of a continuing or long-term character in the period immediately preceding an election, immediately afterwards if the result is unclear, and following the loss of a vote of confidence. In all three circumstances essential business must be allowed to continue.

And I think that means that until Boris or whoever is confirmed as the new PM by a Vote of Confidence, they should not be allowed to make a major change of policy like leaving the EU with no deal (in contravention of everything the current incarnation of this government has tried and failed to do, and against the repeated expressed will of Parliament).

But short of yet another date with the SUPREMES in Court, who is going to ENFORCE this?



So, here’s what I say:

An aspiring Prime Minister should be OBLIGED to bring a Motion of Confidence to the House of Commons, laying out their plan for government, so that it can be debated and voted on, BEFORE they can become PM.

Whether their Party is in a majority (when they shouldn’t have a problem with that), or planning to run a coalition (and their coalition partners would probably like to know), or trying to run a minority government (as is the current case), then Parliament should be able to pin them down and hold them to account.

The policy statement wouldn’t be enforceable, as such, but breaking it in some way – like saying you will try to do a new deal with the EU and then going for a “no deal” crash out – would obviously be grounds for a No Confidence vote.

And it needs to be in an Act of Parliament, because then people will NOTICE it, and especially JOURNALISTS will notice it, and EXPECT IT TO BE DONE.

Think this is unnecessary? Ask yourself: how many people are considering this Constitutional nicety right now? Answer: NONE. Everyone EXPECTS that whoever wins the Tory Leadership WILL BE Prime Monster.

It is so much easier to dodge these bits of the Constitution that only exist in papers, conventions and precedents. Look how this government HAS DONE THAT.

We are Liberals. It is OUR JOB to stop people just GRABBING power. We should not accept this. And we need to say so.

Day 6739: Polls Apart

Friday:


It is three weeks since the European Elections changed everything and there’s really only one story in town. It’s just not the one you think it is.

With 3 MEPS Lib Dems topped the poll in London

Obviously, the news cycles are dominated by the Conservatory leadership. After all, Game of Thrones is over now, and the audience needs a new hit of blood, guts and sexposition…

But whether the idiot in the clown-car is now a shoe in for the Iron Throne or might still get removed by an unexpected twist, what’s less obvious is that the entire debate is framed by the real confrontation: Liberals versus Fascists.

Liberals. Standing up to the Fascists. Who’d have guessed?!

Brexit has always, always been about choosing whether we are a closed off, inward-looking Little England trying to recapture a past that never was, or an outward, embracing, forward-facing Great Britain working with the family of nations for a freer fairer future.

The failure of Theresa Maybe Not to get a Brexit that was Brexity enough for the Mogglodytes meant we got to take part in the HUGE democratic exercise that is the European Elections.

Which lead to the ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE comeback of Nigel Farrago and his Kippers 2.0. No policies. Just an overweening ego and a betrayal narrative.

(“oh but we all know what Nigel stands for” – well on the evidence, stealing his constituents’ money to spend on propaganda so he can continue to not do his job and fail to defend Britain’s interests. How’s THAT for a betrayal narrative?”)

What was less predictable – in the sense that it was predicted by absolutely no one up to and including Professor Sir Not-Richard Curtis while he was reporting the actual actual figures on local election night and still saying “well this is going to be a good night for the Greens” as the Lib Dems soared passed 700 gains – was that the Liberal Democrats would be the clear opposition.

Liberals. Standing up to the Fascists. Who’d have guessed?!

A simple, clear message. “Stop Brexit”. We changed our story, and changed the national story.

We stood up for our values. Liberal , not “centrist”. No more standing in the middle, apologetically getting hit by cars coming in either direction. Taking a stand – like we did on Iraq, like we did on I.D. cards. Not necessarily the popular choice, or the easy choice. But the right choice.

And that was all it took, for us to win London. To break Nasty Nige’s claims to be the “winner”.

Parties that favour Remain outnumbered the Quitlings on election night, and a big big part of that is the Liberal Democrats. We might not quite have managed to form a Remain Alliance, but together the Liberal voices and Green voices and Scottish and Welsh Voices are more and better than the Brexit Party.

Liberals. Standing up to the Fascists. Who’d have guessed?!


So the polls – I mean never mind the polls, but the actual vote on Euro-election night put us second, beating Hard Labour’s wilting rose and the Conservatory’s burning tree; the actual votes in Peterborough show us quadrupling our vote in Brexit central – but since then polls have shown us well up, including one having us tops.

What can all this mean?

It means two things. First, there is no limit to what we can achieve, and there should be no limit to the ambitions of our next leader, whoever SHE is.

(What? What! Oh go on, vote for Jo!)

But second it means we must embrace that clear Liberal message. When we speak with our fluffy hearts, when we are clear, when we are Liberal we win.

This country needs healing. So much. And we will offer hope for everyone. But we cannot try to offer something that will satisfy everyone. We cannot try to straddle that divide. Look at what happened to Labour. They said they were trying to bring the country together. They were – rightly – seen as trying to say one thing to Remainers and the opposite to Quitlings. If you speak with two faces, soon people start to think of you as two-faced.

The nearest comparison is Northern Ireland. It’s a bit artificial, because there are artificial rules there that mean you have to have Unionist and Nationalist power-sharing. But when the brakes were taken off after the Good Friday agreement, the votes didn’t go to the middle of the road Parties, they went to the ones who said what they meant.

That’s happening in the rest of Britain. Liberal Democrats on the one side. Brexits on the other. No longer right and left. Right and Wrong.

Liberals. Standing up to the Fascists. Who’d have guessed?!

If there was a time when the gulf could have been crossed, it was in the weeks after the Referendum, when a Prime Minister of vision could have brought together people from different sides to find a solution that saw us leave but remain close. It would have cost a bit for both sides, but Remainers would have been soothed, and Quitters would have had their departure.

But instead, the Quitlings went berserk. Seizing their waffer-thin victory, cobbled together by promising a different Brexit to almost every different voter, and claiming that it was a mandate for whatever mad scheme entered their heads: abolish human rights – will of the people, Empire 2.0 – will of the people! Denounce the judges – will of the people., General Election to Crush the Saboteurs – will of the pe… oh fluff, look how that collision with reality worked out.

Last week, there was research showing that the soon-to-be-former Prime Monster’s three years of promising No Deal because it’s better than a Bad Deal right up to the point of sitting down and being show just how very much WORSE it was has not been completely successful in bringing the country back together either.

In fact, if you want to piss off 90% of the people, just pick a Brexit. Any Brexit.

TMPM’s catalogue of cluelessness has hardened opinions all round so much so that each different Brexit tribe is now so utterly convinced of their own deluded version of Brexit (no migration Brexit, sovereignty Brexit, take back our laws Brexit, Singapore on Stilts Brexit, Red White and Blue Brexit, In Out Shake it All About Brexit and every other Magic Unicorn Brexit) and utterly so convinced that any other Brexit would be a BETRAYAL™ that they would all rather we Remain than get the WRONG BREXIT™.

And the 48%, who might well have accepted with a few British grumbles that they lost in 2016, are more pissed than ever that they’ve not only not been listened to, and called traitors up and down the country by that fatuous fag-smoking former banker in the affected Barbour Jacket, that they are now more than willing to say, you know what, we were actually bloody RIGHT in that Referendum and we damn well don’t want to put up with this Brexit nonsense any more.

Everything has changed.

The old parties tried to ride Farrage’s tiger and it’s turned on them and eaten them.

There is only one path to healing.

And that is Stop Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. We are better than this. And when we say so, we win.

Liberals. Standing up to the Fascists. Damn right. And about time too!

Day 6688: The Second Widdecoming

Wednesday:


With apologies to Mr Yeats:

“The best lack all conviction, while the worst
“Are full of passionate intensity…
“…And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
“Slouches towards the Euro Elections to make a fast buck?”

Oh look. Here is Ms Ann Widdecombe saying: “Britain is an international laughing stock.”

Definitely not a laughing stock

Ms Widdecombe is the homophobic dinosaur who as a Home Office minister chained pregnant women to their maternity beds while they gave birth yet, imponderably, by describing her boss, Michael Howard, as “something of the night” – thus scuppering his (first) bid to lead the Conservatory Party – and through a dose of self-humiliation via the medium of ballroom dance somehow gained a measure of cleaned-up public reputation.

And now she is up for Mr Farrago’s Breakfast Club. Dancing to Nasty Nige’s tune.

Yes, she’s been on a JOURNEY, just like that other darling of the far-right fash, Mr Neil “not the musical” Hamilton, the disgraced former MP for Tatton, guilty of cash for questions, who also tripped off to join a (different) Farrago vehicle.

In the old days, you used to get caught in a scandal and went away to do GOOD WORKS.

But now it seems that appearing “game” on “reality TV” – easy enough for people who HAVE NO SHAME; it’s not like they’re not eating testicles ANYWAY – is a new and so-much-easier way to receive the INDULGENCE of the British voting public.

“Britain is an international laughing stock,” says Ms Widdecombe. Because CLEARLY some implausibly-frocked ballroom bigotry is what the nation needs to restore a proper sense of decorum and self-respect. Dancing discrimination. Cha-cha-cha-ing chauvinism. A rhumba of racism. A foxtrot of fash.

Obviously she’s forgetting that we’re a laughing stock BECAUSE OF BREXIT.

It’s the UTTER FAILURE of Brextreemists like her that have wrecked [I think you mean wreaked, says Daddy. I know what I mean!] this position upon the rest of us.

People like Ms W and her new best mate, the private jet and gold elevator-flying Farrago, promised rainbows and unicorns and then immediately did a runner the moment it looked like they might have to DELIVER on their promises and lies.

This is hardly NEW. Remember that, thanks to the so-called leadership of the Quitting Quitling, Mr Farrago’s last vanity project YouQuit (formerly Kippers) lost, fired, mislaid or disgraced all but 3 of the 24 MEPs elected under their flag in 2014, including the Less-than-glorious Leader himself. Not that you would notice the difference, since aside from grandstanding in the odd debate they rarely bothered to turn up, or represent for the people who elected them, preferring to trouser the money and run.

So no one was actually SURPRISED that within 48 hours of “winning” the deeply compromised 2016 referendum, La Faux-rage was away to spend more time kissing the orange bottom of that other over-inflated ass, the then presidential-candidate Trump.

What MIGHT raise a Mr Roger-Moorish eyebrow is all the cries of “Brexit has been BETRAYED!” Sure it has, Mr F… BY YOU!

Meanwhile, in a WEIRD (possibly Fearful) SYMMETRY the “Remain Alliance” (formerly the ChUKles (formerly the TIGgers)) are ALSO performing a reverse-Big Brother reveal of the FAMOUS FACES they’ve lined up/picked out of a hat to be their candidates by series of Press Launches, mirroring the Farrego-trip even down to Mr Gavin Esler telling us that “Britain is a laughing stock”.

On a SERIOUS note, it’s really not right that the chance of gaining MEP seats (and, not to prejudge the polls, but for some parties those are basically the GIFT of an all-expenses paid trip to Brussels) are being handed out to BESTIES.

It’s not just IRONIC, it is WRONG that the very people who complain that the EU is “undemocratic” are being so… undemocratic!

This is actually the fault of Hard Labour’s Sinister Minister, Mr Jack Straw who, when Europe told Britain that using First Pass the Port for Euro elections wasn’t properly democratic, went out of his way to choose the LEAST democratic way for us to bring in a Proportional (ish) voting system.

Which is why instead of using the British Proportional Representation that we ALREADY used for elections in Northern Ireland, he went for the de HONK method, both because it favours BIG parties like his over small ones (and alliances) and because it’s a CLOSED Party List – one where the public don’t get to choose who is on the list, or who is top of the list and most likely to get the seat.

(I know, who would have expected one of Lord Blairimort’s ministers to try and skew the system in favour of Labour!)

Well, we notice that it’s not just the fly-by-night parties but also the supposed grown-ups in Conservatory and Hard Labour who are handing out the gift of an MEP seat to their chosen favourites.

Hooray then for the Liberal Democrats managing to not only hold a proper ballot of members in the very short time between Mrs May’s U-Turn on there definitely NOT being Euro elections and the start of campaigning for those Euro elections we’re not having, but also on the members picking a hugely diverse range of candidates (even when the Party’s well-meaning if flawed efforts to fabricate-in diversity fell flat)!


Anyway, here is the late Ms Victoria Wood. (Warning: may contain SINGING!)

Day 6676: Europe: The Final Countdown. Again.

Friday:

Happy STILL IN the European Union Day. Again. They come around so quickly, don’t they!

People keep asking me “What is going to happen about Brexit?”

To which the correct answer is “How should I know, I’m a stuffed elephant!”

But let’s give it a go.

There was exactly ONE moment when Brexit could happen, and that was 23:00 on 29 March 2019.

And it didn’t.

Entirely thanks to the ineptitude of Brexiters in and formerly-in the Cabinet demanding more unicorns and less reality in their Brexit and through the religious intransigence of Brexiters outside the Cabinet insisting that this Brexit wasn’t Brexity enough, they missed the exit.

This is undeniably good news.

Parliament, and to an extent even the Prime Monster, have looked twice into the ABYSS of “no deal” and said “no thank you very much, matey” to the death and disaster that likely would follow.

So what do we do instead.

Well, Parliament is already off on its Easter hols…

No, that’s super UNFAIR – they’ve all been working absurdly hard to try and agree on nothing, and taking time away from the bubble might clear heads and let some fresh thoughts in.

But still, this extension actually takes all the pressure OFF The Prime Monster to get her agreement signed. And equally OFF of MPs to come to any agreement for it or any other deal.

And we have seen for the last six months that if there is an option to kick the can down the road, Mrs May will punt it into the longest deepest grass she can find.

Which unfortunately gives them all time to think about doing something else instead.

The WORST that could happen would be European Parliament Elections AND a General Election AND a referendum.

So you can bet that that’s EXACTLY what’s going to happen.

With the Conservatory Party visibly self-destructing before our button eyes, it will not be long before they do something… rather rash.

Pundits saying that the Prime Monster is safe until December because of the rules of the 1922 Committee… are overlooking that the 1922 Committee can just change the rules. We’ve already had the suggestion of “Indicative Votes of No Confidence”, which would be just as lethal as the real thing if lost.

Of course, Mrs May is a past master of seeming to promise to go, only to indefinitely defer the deadline – before the 2022 election, once the agreement is passed, when the stars are right. However, the even-by-their-standards frothingly outraged reaction of her Party to having to fight the European elections suggests time is very much reaching its fullness and the appropriates of her juncture is fast approaching.

The time limit that the Prime Monster has set herself is the 30th of June, though a calamitous showing at the now-inevitable Euro elections could truncate her tenure even further.

And to be fair, not a moment too soon. She has been absolutely the worst Prime Monster since, er, the last one, who is really to blame for all this mess. But Mrs May should have gone after the unnecessary election that she lost and only the unique combination of personal mulishness and no one else wanting to be left holding the ticking timebomb let her stay. Alas for Theresa, proving that she would rather defer Brexit forever than be holding it at the moment of detonation has removed her last purpose, that of fall guy.

I actually have this notion of Theresa May that, should she be ousted either by some confected 1922 Committee mechanism internal to the Tory Party or by a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in her government… she will still be Prime Minister long enough to send a Revoke letter to the EU.

It would be a final act of petty revenge, but she’d finally be doing the right thing for all the wrong reasons.

And she would tell us, from her Downing Street podium, that – entirely correctly – she was justified in this by the House having repeatedly voted down no deal and there simply being no time to reach agreement to do anything else.

She could literally save the country to spite the ERG.

But alas, that’s really too bold, to daringly pro-active for the Theresa we’ve come to know.

Most like she’ll just slink away to her field of wheat. Or what blasted heath is left of it.


So the Conservatories will need a new lunatic to take over the asylum. And the chances are they will replace the current one with the egomaniac second only to Mr Balloon in the annals of BLAME, Boris Johnson.

Not to say they won’t move heaven and earth – more like hell and earth – to stop him getting to the final two, because if he goes before the members he will win on a manifesto of bluster blubber and betrayal.

The alternatives though are not many. Either one of the swivel-eyed band of Mogglodytes, possibly Moggy himself. If Johnson gets it, he’ll split the party in a week. If one of the ERG lot get it, they’ll split the party in under a day.

Or there are the “moderates” – the deeply unlovely betrayer of human rights, Sajid Javid or the incarnation of the Banality of Evil, Jeremy the former Hulture Secretary. Either or both hoping to play the “John Major” of this scenario – winning from out of the bland – though neither have the shining charisma or raw sexual magnetism of a John Major. And that’s saying something. They are tainted with the Remain vote, though, for all the effort they’ve put into being more right-wing-than-thou. (Which, actually, was Mr Major’s problem too – he had to out-Thatcher Thatcher, hence all the insanity from railway privatisation to Back to Bedsocks, but that was last century's Tory tragedy.)

Obviously it would be a LOT better for all of us if they decided to look for fresh blood (no, not in the Zombie Apocalypse sense) and went to a fresher face, who could actually negotiate with Europe and build a national consensus again… no, I don’t see it happening either.

They’re going to pick another loony.

And then between two and twenty of the centreerists of the Dominic Grieve flavour will cross to the TIGgers (now renamed ChUKles) and the government will fall. In fact, a SMART Tory leader would jump before pushed, calling an immediate election rather than be humiliated into one.

Which would leave us with Boris Johnson versus Jeremy Corbyn. Which Johnson would win.

That’s not to underestimate Mr Corbyn. But against a robot with a manifesto that promised a death tax on her own core vote, Mr Corbyn still only managed to drag back Labour’s performance to really very awful. He’s not going to win back the forty seats in Scotland from the SNP that he needs to be anywhere like in contention for a majority. And his equivocation on supporting a People’s Vote or a Revoke Article 50 mean he’s frittered away a lot of the goodwill of the young people who believed Magic Grandpa was playing Seven-dimensional chess to stop Brexit.


The first thing to remember is that TMPM doesn’t actually HAVE a “deal” as such at all.

What she’s got is a Withdrawal Agreement, an acknowledgement of what we need to do to settle our existing obligations – mainly pensions for UK civil servants and MEPs, and projects that we signed up to and that went ahead on the understanding we were going to contribute – so we can settle our bills on the way out the door.

The Johnsonian notion that we can walk away from the Withdrawal and let the EU “go whistle” is obviously nonsense on stilts.

The first thing we would do after quitting with “no deal” is to go to Europe to sort out our customs, defence, security, common air-travel, fisheries etc etc agreements…

And the SECOND thing we would have to do is eat copious HUMBLE PIE as they wave the Withdrawal Agreement at us with an air of “What about paying for those dumplings you had, then?”

The real “deal” is the Future Trading Relationship, whether we are in the Single Market, in the Customs Union, in a Free Trade agreement or in the DO-DO of a no deal scenario.

“No deal” is the utter severance that is yearned for by the ardent Brextremists who laugh off the fears of “experts” and warmly welcome the notion of “trading under World Trade Organisation terms”.

This is because they do not know – or care – what that really means. Or worse, they do know and plan to make a killing by shorting the pound against the collapsing British economy. What it means is tariffs, schedules and border checks. Oh my.

Tariffs are actually the LEAST of our worries. The Government laid out its plans for a lot of zero INBOUND tariffs, which might seem good for people buying things, but they cannot fix the OUTBOUND tariffs that will make selling things to other countries HARDER, and with zero tariffs in place give us nothing to negotiate with when we try to change that. Disgraced former Defence Secretary Fantastic Dr Fox will remain a useless adornment to the government. So it’s not all bad news.

The schedules, though, are a very complicated set of lists and quotas that say how much of a thing we can import at a low tariff rate, how much has to be at a high rate, or how much we cannot import at all. Britain’s are all tied up with Europe’s, so expect a big fight over what our share of the EU schedule actually is. Which will obviously be helped HUGELY by having just TICKED OFF the rest of the EU by not agreeing the Withdrawal Agreement.

But the border checks are the MOST complicated, because under WTO rules you need to prove where the things you are taking across a border came from. And not just the whole finished product, but all the bits that made it up. And all the raw materials that the bits were made from first. And you have to stop lorries and boats and planes and check the paperworks. Which takes a LONG time. At the moment, in the Single Market, we get a lorry though the port of Dover every TEN SECONDS. Just how much of a delay do you think it will need to be before those lorries start backing up along the M20? Hello carpark-Kent. Hello food shortages and soon food riots. Hello people starting to DIE from lack of medicines.

And of course any country in the World – including the twenty-seven we’ve just magnificently flicked the V’s at; including Argentina who still want the Falklands – can start a trade dispute with you. Several already have, including the biggest economies in the World, China and our supposed best buds the Americans (make that trade deal great again, the Donald). You need teams of "experts" to provide "evidence" and agree "compromise" - all the things the Quitlings hate. Your free trade quickly gets very sticky, tying you up in knots for years.

One thing we DO know about Boris, though, is that he DOESN’T LIKE HARD WORK. Work like fiddly negotiations or difficult compromises or learning a brief when a woman’s life depends on it.

So why not try this for a Boris lark. He arrives in Downing Street victorious and announces, with another turning on a dime volte-face, that Britain clearly needs to choose its destiny again and there will be another referendum. He will rise magisterially above the fray. And with that vanishes inside Number Ten to make away with the silver and the secretaries.

And with one voice the nation cries:

JUST MAKE IT STOP

And so the nightmare is over. As long as Boris remembers to send the Revoke letter.

Brexit is dead. Or undead. At least until Halloween.

Now we just have to find a way to undo all the massive harms they’ve done getting us to this absolutely dead end.

Meanwhile, here is some Dr Woo…