...a blog by Richard Flowers

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Day 2620: Undecided States of America


Watch out for the new HIGH DIVE in the Olympics this year: the reverse triple axolotl with extended length and twist: you skip the rounds where you won't win in order to jump right over your competitors for a spectacular splash. Also known as the "Giuliani Belly Flop".

Even Senator Hillary-Billary couldn't pull it off perfectly, and the long string of losses has damaged her campaign.

But someone needs to let Senator Barry O know this: EVERY time he opens his mouth to predict victory – New Hampshire, Super Duper Tuesday, today – it is immediately followed by Hillary-Billary bouncing back.

The scores on the doors now stand at Hillary-Billary 1,391 and Barry O 1,477, a lead of 86 for the CHARISMATIC man from Illinois (though it would be a different story if the net 111 extra delegates from Michigan and Florida were being counted on Hillary-Billary's scorecard).

What this means is that it is actually QUITE HARD for EITHER candidate to get to the magic number of 2,025 delegates and that the contest is definitely going to go on, probably all the way to the Dumbocratic Convention, which is very exciting for news pundits and probably a bit wearying for every body else.

Although there are the Wyoming and Mississippi caucuses next week, the next BIG landmark is not until Pennsylvania decides at the start of April, and then we have to keep on for ANOTHER month until the Indiana and North Carolina votes. That North Carolina contest looks good for Barry O – after doing so well in South Carolina, and with backing from Carolinian Senator John Edwards, but until then it's all up in the air.

And under the circumstances, it's going to be VERY DIFFICULT to talk Hillary-Billary down from taking it to the wire.

It might have LOOKED like her husband, President Billary-Hillary, had set up a way out for her, with his suggestion that she couldn't continue if she didn't win both Ohio AND Texas. Like THAT dress, she'd have been taken to the cleaners. On the other fluffy foot, it might have been that he was setting a reasonably high BAR so that when she DID vault it, it got her back in the game again.

And, with her victory speech, it seems that Hillary-Billary has found a convincing new message.

"For everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone...
... who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you.
(Mr Paul was impressed too)

Barry O's theme of HOPE plays very well with the young and the enthusiastic, but this new Hillary-Billary message might reach out to HER core support even better. America feels on the back foot, beaten down by the economic wreck and international opprobrium that the Monkey-in-Chief's administration has brought upon them. Sure, they're still the most powerful nation on Earth but the FEELING is of crushing DEFEAT. Hillary-Billary is trying to say: "I'm the MAN to pick us up off the canvass again".

That is the appeal of the MOVIES, the underdog making good, the blue-collar American hero coming back: it's why Rocky MMCIX still works (and why Rambo 4 really doesn't). And of course, it is the same "comeback kid" message that worked so WELL for Mr Billary-Hillary.

How ARE they going to sort this out?

With Barry O in the lead, and looking like staying that way, even though Hillary-Billary will now dog his heals to the line, short of disaster he's GOT to end up as the Candidate. But with nearly half the Dumbocrats having backed her, who is going to break it to Hillary-Billary?

It seems to me that the chances of a DREAM-TICKET are now further away than ever – 'cos she's NOT going to accept the job of Mrs SECOND BEST, is she? Maybe Barry O could ask her to be his Secretary of State, a role with a real job to it, but even that's going to come across as a WOODEN SPOON.

I think that it probably WILL go to the Convention, but once it has been decided (and someone has SAT on Hillary-Billary to stop her SUING over her missing Michigan and Florida delegates), the Party will reunite and be stronger. So long as they don't tear too many chunks out of each other – yes, I am looking at YOUR "3 am call" advert Ms Hillary-Billary – then the ongoing contest will generate media interest and publicity and be a good head start for the REAL fight against the Replutocrats. The downside is that they will have spent all of their money by then.

Meanwhile, no sooner has he secured the Candidature when DISASTER strikes the Replutocratic campaign as the Monkey-in-Chief comes out in support of Senator Over-Chip!

Mr God bless Amnesia

1 comment:

HE Elsom said...

John McCain didn't have to go to the White House to get endorsed, and it probably wasn't in his interest as he needs non-aligned votes that toxic Bush will alienate, whereas the real foaming core of the base will probably turn out to stop any Democrat. Although he turned up late, McCain seemed to me to have accepted Bush's endorsement and said he'd welcome him on the campaign trail out of respect for his office, and even (from the senator's manner) out of kindness. Which actually probably did him some good, even if he wasn't planning it that way. Though I bet his campaign team did their collective nuts.